Predicting student proficiency test scores

In order to predict how a school district would have scored when accounting for poverty and other income measures, The Cincinnati Enquirer gathered data from the Ohio Department of Education’s Education Management Services and the Ohio Department of Taxation (The Cincinnati Enquirer, November 30, 1997). First, the newspaper obtained passage-rate data on the math, reading, science, writing, and citizenship proficiency exams given to 4th-, 6th-, 9th-, and 12th-graders in early 1996. By combining these data, they computed an overall percentage of students that passed the tests for each district.

The percentage of a school district’s students on Aid for Dependent Children (ADC), the percentage who qualify for free or reduced-price lunches, and the district’s median family income were also recorded. Aportion of the data collected for the 608 school districts follows. The complete data set is available on the CD accompanying the text in the data set named Enquirer.

						Median
			%	% on	% Free	Income
Rank	School District	County	Passed	ADC	Lunch	($)
1	Ottawa Hills Local	Lucas	93.85	0.11	0	48231
2	Wyoming City	Hamilton	93.08	2.95	4.59	42672
3	Oakwood City	Montgomery	92.92	0.2	0.38	42403
4	Madeira City	Hamilton	92.37	1.5	4.83	32889
5	Indian Hill Ex Vill	Hamilton	91.77	1.23	2.7	44135
6	Solon City	Cuyahoga	90.77	0.68	2.24	34993
7	Chagrin Falls Ex Vill	Cuyahoga	89.89	0.47	0.44	38921
8	Mariemont City	Hamilton	89.8	3	2.97	31823
9	Upper Arlington City	Franklin	89.77	0.24	0.92	38358
10	Granville Ex Vill	Licking	89.22	1.14	0	36235
.	.	.	.	.	.	.
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The data have been ranked based on the values in the column labeled % Passed; these data are the overall percentage of students passing the tests. Data in the column labeled % o ADC are the percentage of each school district’s students on ADC, and the data in the column labeled % Free Lunch are the percentage of students who qualify for free or reduced price lunches. The column labeled Median Income shows each district’s median family income. Also shown for each school district is the county in which the school district is located. Note that in some cases the value in the % Free Lunch column is 0, indicating that the district did not participate in the free lunch program.

Managerial Report

Use the methods presented in this and previous chapters to analyze this data set. Present a summary of your analysis, including key statistical results, conclusions, and recommendations, in a managerial report. Include any technical material you feel is appropriate in an appendix.

[[Case Problem]]

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